To sign or Not to sign

The recent gathering of the UN Security Council asking all non-NPT states to sign the treaty as a non-nuclear state will once again trigger debates over this dormant issue. In an ideal world, perhaps, there will be no nuclear weapons. But in today’s hostile world in which the nuclear powers refused to dismantle their stockpile, India would surely like to keep its option open. Of course, the decision to sign the treaty is more political than scientific. The general public is not aware that what has been tested is a thermonuclear device; to make it into a full-scale weapon is a different process altogether. The use of data from a single thermonuclear test for “weaponization” will be unwise and erroneous. As Richard Garwin points out, “It is possible to build simple nuclear weapons without nuclear explosion tests, but there will always be a nagging doubt whether or how well they will perform” and “without nuclear tests of substantial yield, it is difficult to build compact and light fission weapons”. From the American point-of-view, this is a strong argument to ratify the CTBT, pressuring India to follow suit. From the Indian point-of-view, this makes an even stronger case for not signing the treaty.